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Do, or do not. There is no "try"

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 12:43 a.m.

In Response To: Do, or do not. There is no "try" (Timothy Chow)

Time for me to try some rubbish calculations. I never bothered to learn Crawford match equities, partially because we can easily get decent estimates. I'm going with 100% if we win, 81% for a single game loss or a gammon loss, and 68% for a bg loss. A gammon loss is the standard. We gain 19% match equity with a win. If we go for the win, we hit the shot 9% of the time. If we hit, we win the game 33%? of the time for 3% wins, so we gain (19%)(3%) for 0.57% match equity gain. If we stay back, we lose on the sequence 65,64,63,62,54,53,52,43,42,32/ 11,12,13,14,23 / non 1x or about 10% of the time. We lose (13%)(10%) or about 1.3% match equity by staying. Get out. 24/18 and 24/20 19/17 seem to be equally correct.

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