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Do, or do not. There is no "try"

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 10:51 a.m.

In Response To: Do, or do not. There is no "try" (Timothy Chow)

What I'd do OTB:

Estimate his MWC at:
about 1/3 after bg (it's a bit less than that)
about 1/5 after single/g (it's a bit less than that)

Switch to our MWC:
about 2/3 after loosing a bg (a bit more than that)
about 4/5 after loosing a single/g (a bit more than that)

If we run, we have 5/36 = 14% for bg loss, and the other 86% for g loss, so:
2/3 x 14% (a bit more) = 9.5%
4/5 x 86% (a bit more) = 70% For a total of 79.5% MWC.

If we stay, the main scenarios are:

/a/ He wins a bg after all doubles but 11, and sometimes (rarely) after 11, so 5+/36 = 15%
/b/ He wins a bg after 20 no-ace non-doubles + we fail to escape (about 1/4) = 5/36 = 14%
But if we fail to escape, we'll stay and hope for another non-double ace, so we should lessen that by 10/36 (his another ace) x 32/36 (we fail to escape or hit only with 4 rolls: 23 & 24) or about 1/4, so 14% goes down to 11.5%

So total bgs are about 26.5%

/c/ We win something when he rolls a non-double ace and we hit - about 8.5% chance for this to happen (10/36 x 11/36)

How much do we win?
If we don't pick up another checker, we have about 19% (1 closed out with 12 off is 17%, plus 2% for the gap).
If we pick up another checker we have 75% (2 closed out with 12 off).

How likely are we to succeed? we have plenty of timing (good) and we have 2 gaps (good), and his forced ace exposes 2 blots instead of one (good) - I'd say we get there maybe 1 in 2 times, so half-distance between 19% and 75% is 47%.

So total for /c/ is 8.5% x 47% = about 1/12 x 47% = about 4%

So our MWC if we stay is:
bgs: 26.5% x 2/3 (a bit more) = 18%
we win: 4%
other: 69.5% x 4/5 (a bit more) = 57%
For a total of 79%.

So running should be slightly correct. Even more than that, since I think the estimation of 50% to pick up another checker might be too optimistic.

I'd consider staying against a much stronger opponnent.

Messages In This Thread

• Do, or do not. There is no "try"
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 April 2017, at 9:41 p.m.
  • Do, or do not. There is no "try"
    Keene -- Monday, 3 April 2017, at 11:45 p.m.
  • Do, or do not. There is no "try"
    Sean Garber -- Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 12:43 a.m.
  • Do, or do not. There is no "try"
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 10:51 a.m.
  • Do, or do not. There is no "try"
    mick dyett -- Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 12:01 p.m.
  • Do, or do not. There is no "try"
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 7:57 p.m.
  • Rollout ATS and for money
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 10:36 p.m.