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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 11 April 2017, at 12:19 a.m.

In Response To: This might be the last roll of the game! (Timothy Chow)

Closer than some respondents made it sound. XG says you need only a 10% chance of a drop (but assuming a standard MET of course).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
7 point match
pip: 27
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-GCa--a-----a-A----bbbbbb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.69% (G:30.76% B:1.16%) 64.50% (G:32.22% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 35.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.573 +0.553
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.605±0.002 (+0.603..+0.607)
Redouble/Take:+0.553 (-0.052)±0.002 (+0.551..+0.555)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.395)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 32.0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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