Yo, this rollout's way too short, but my quadminusthree puter is too slow.
17/11 puts two builders in better places (on the 8 and 11, building for the 7 and the 5), but 17/13 8/6 cleans up one blot. Anything more to the comparison of these two plays?
I still wouldn't play 21/17 8/6 with a 2 and a half point board and no prime for containment. The 4 point anchor may be valuable still, although the early returns suggest it's ... no blunder to lose it.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0
Move number 3: Blue to play 42
| White | 188 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 150 |
Position ID: zA44wFhGc8YQBg Match ID: cAkKAAAAAAAA | |
• Blue moves 17/11
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 17/13 8/6 | +0.179 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 192 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823806279 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| • | 2 | R | 17/11 | +0.176 ( -0.003) | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 192 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823806279 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | R | 21/17 8/6 | +0.149 ( -0.030) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 192 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823806279 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | R | 21/17 5/3 | +0.137 ( -0.043) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 192 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823806279 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
0.561 0.209 0.015 - 0.439 0.138 0.006
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Cubeful 2-ply 17/13 8/6 Eq.: +0.257 ( -0.022)
0.555 0.198 0.014 - 0.445 0.123 0.004
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Cubeful 2-ply 17/11 Eq.: +0.256 ( -0.023)
0.550 0.199 0.014 - 0.450 0.129 0.005
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Cubeful 2-ply 21/17 5/3 Eq.: +0.209 ( -0.437)
0.553 0.196 0.013 - 0.447 0.141 0.006
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Finding meaning in rollout results like this are kind of like reporting that "Obama surges to a 2% lead" based on a poll with a 95% confidence level of +- 15%.