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Four Variants (rolled out): VEXT!

Posted By: nack ballard
Date: Saturday, 22 April 2017, at 3:52 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 149 2 point match Crawford pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bA-BBC-B--AbBa--d-d-b--B-:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	24/20(2)	eq: +0.790
	Player: Opponent: 69.21% (G:20.28% B:2.46%) 30.79% (G:7.55% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.783...+0.797) - [100.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 38 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 6/2	eq: +0.704 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 65.40% (G:19.81% B:3.54%) 34.60% (G:8.62% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.698...+0.711) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 34 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Tim's original position (see his rollout above) was opined as a "NEXT!" With a single change, however, it can be turned it into a "VEXT!"

There are four variants below. In each case, the top two plays remain the same as in the original position, but with the other play winning: the swing in margin is nearly a hundred millipoints.

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 137 2 point match Crawford pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bA-BBC-B--AbBa--b-d-b-bB-:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10
Variant 1

1.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 6/2	eq: +0.778
	Player: Opponent: 67.37% (G:21.52% B:3.11%) 32.63% (G:8.98% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.774...+0.781) - [100.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 22 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20(2)	eq: +0.767 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 66.83% (G:21.51% B:1.95%) 33.17% (G:11.15% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.763...+0.770) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 23 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In Variant 1 (above), White's 2pt has been added by 8/2(2).

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 145 2 point match Crawford pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bA-BBC-B--AbBa--d-d---bB-:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10
Variant 2

1.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 6/2	eq: +0.867
	Player: Opponent: 70.46% (G:22.88% B:3.51%) 29.54% (G:6.93% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.865...+0.869) - [99.8%] Duration: 45 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20(2)	eq: +0.863 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 71.06% (G:22.10% B:2.40%) 28.94% (G:7.74% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.861...+0.865) - [0.2%] Duration: 54 minutes 09 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In Variant 2 (above), compared to the original, White has her 2pt instead of her 4pt. I am vaguely reminded of the spread in Backgammon Openings, pp. 60-61, where A147 is compared to A151, and A150 to A154.

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 144 2 point match Crawford pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bA-BBC-B--AbB---d-e-b--B-:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10
Variant 3

1.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 6/2	eq: +0.776
	Player: Opponent: 68.16% (G:20.63% B:2.69%) 31.84% (G:7.97% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.772...+0.779) - [100.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20(2)	eq: +0.764 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 67.62% (G:20.56% B:1.74%) 32.38% (G:8.36% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.760...+0.767) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 10 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In Variant 3 (above), compared to the original, White's 11pt blot has been lifted, 11/6.

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 149 2 point match Crawford pip: 141 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bA-BBC-A-AAbBa--d-d-b--B-:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10
Variant 4

1.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 6/2	eq: +0.723
	Player: Opponent: 64.85% (G:21.30% B:2.92%) 35.15% (G:9.29% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.720...+0.726) - [100.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 57 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20(2)	eq: +0.712 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 64.78% (G:20.81% B:2.11%) 35.22% (G:11.38% B:1.19%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.709...+0.714) - [0.0%] Duration: 56 minutes 21 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

in Variant 4 (above), the position is the same as the original, except one of Blue's 8pt checkers is backed up to the 10pt.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• The GS play is obvious, but this is GG
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 14 April 2017, at 11:36 p.m.
  • The GS play is obvious, but this is GG
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 15 April 2017, at 12:32 a.m.
    • The GS play is obvious, but this is GG
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 15 April 2017, at 12:49 a.m.
    • The GS play is obvious, but this is GG
      Stick -- Sunday, 16 April 2017, at 4:10 a.m.
      • The GS play is obvious, but this is GG
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 16 April 2017, at 4:13 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 17 April 2017, at 4:18 p.m.
    • Four Variants (rolled out): VEXT!
      nack ballard -- Saturday, 22 April 2017, at 3:52 p.m.
      • Four Variants (rolled out): VEXT!
        Stick -- Saturday, 22 April 2017, at 6:24 p.m.
  • The GS play is obvious, but this is GG
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 19 April 2017, at 2:18 p.m.