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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 23 April 2017, at 6:14 p.m.

In Response To: Stick's rule again? (Timothy Chow)

Stick's rule doesn't apply as strongly at 3a6a as at 3a7a, 3a8a, etc., but still, it is unusual to see a D/T at 3a6a with this much contact remaining, especially when Blue has a > 5% chance of losing a gammon. White's unusually bad structure has a lot to do with it I think.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 109
7 point match
pip: 162
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBCB-Ab----A--beB-adB-:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.38% (G:27.45% B:2.57%) 76.00% (G:27.04% B:4.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.62% (G:7.85% B:0.76%) 24.00% (G:7.55% B:1.38%)
Cubeless Equities +0.778 +1.319
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.864 (-0.093)±0.015 (+0.849..+0.880)
Double/Take:+0.958±0.021 (+0.937..+0.979)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.042)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 38 minutes 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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