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Baseball by the Book - You're the manager

Posted By: Bill
Date: Monday, 19 May 2008, at 7:32 p.m.

In Response To: Baseball by the Book - You're the manager (Matt Reklaitis)

While I agree with Keene that this is a computation problem, there are LOTS of variables. And you can go as deep as you like.

You probably want to use the on-base-percentage for batter 1 - a walk advances the runner just as far as a bunt or a short single. But do you look at his percentages against all pitchers, or against pitchers from the same side (lefties vs righties)? If you have sufficient sample size, do you use the batter's stats against this specific pitcher? What about streaks - is he hot or in a slump? Maybe only his stats for the last month count? Like trying to make checker decisions based on match equities, your choices are only as good as the approximations you have to make over the board.

And what about batter 2 and batter 3? Can managers do 3-ply evaluations on the fly?

Personally, I would think this: Only way I bunt is if batter 1 is REALLY good at bunting but has a low OBP and batter 2 has two of the following three:high average, recently hot, does well against the current pitcher. Otherwise, fast runner on first, try to swipe second. If the guy at the plate can be counted on to make contact, go with hit-and-run instead.

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