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Cube from Vegas Main

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 28 April 2017, at 4:19 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from Vegas Main (Stick)

With one guy closed out, his 8 off and gap on deuce you get about 54% (50 +4 for gap). If you pick up 2nd guy you get about 91% (90 + 1 for gap). I'd use 90, because he sometimes anchors.

With that much timing left, I'd say you pick up the 2nd guy 31% (now) + 1/2 to 2/3 later (later being 69% cases), so 66-77%.

Applying this ratio to the distance between 54 and 90 % wins (1 vs 2 closed out) gives 78-82%.

We probably win few % less because he might secure and run. Maybe 76-80%. With his few gammons it looks like a slim take.

Our side is not difficult to play, so I feel it doesn't influence the decision.

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