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Variant - Commentary and rollout

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 1 May 2017, at 3:25 p.m.

In Response To: Variant (Timothy Chow)

The obvious difference is that paying now only leaves 11 shots instead of 12.

Apparently, that's enough to make the difference (breaking my usual practice of commenting before reading bot results, but the context seemed to strongly indicate the right answer was "pay now") but I still say "pay later" and happily take the .01 error in stride.

That said, I can't say I understand the rollout - Blue wins few gammons no matter what, but wins more games and loses fewer gammons with the safe play. Must be some funky cube action in the works to make the "pay now" play have larger equity.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 71
Unlimited Game
pip: 66
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DDB-B--A-a----B-a-cbbbbb-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout115/11 15/9eq: -0.284
Player:
Opponent:		37.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.25% (G:2.75% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.294...-0.274) - [93.0%]
Duration: 21.3 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 5/1eq: -0.294 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		40.18% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
59.82% (G:2.34% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.303...-0.285) - [7.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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