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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 16 May 2017, at 11:41 p.m.

In Response To: 31 for Blue (John O'Hagan)

I was White against XG in this position the other day. It rolled 31 and quickly played 18/15 8/7. This is clearly Blue's best play. It wins more games and loses fewer net gammons than any hitting play. The problem with hitting, as Mick pointed out, is that all 20 of White's entering rolls will hit back (62 won't hit if you play 8/5 but it will escape). After the correct play, most of White's 6s and 5s are terrible - 10 of these leave a triple shot, 4 leave a double shot, and the other 6 leave a single shot. Playing the three 18/15 does give White 7 hit and cover rolls but the gains outweigh this risk.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 80
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBAA---b-----CcbcdaB-:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout118/15 8/7eq: -0.001
Player:
Opponent:		48.93% (G:7.83% B:0.31%)
51.07% (G:23.71% B:2.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.010...+0.007) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout118/14eq: -0.076 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		46.92% (G:8.11% B:0.34%)
53.08% (G:26.29% B:3.54%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.086...-0.067) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout18/4eq: -0.080 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:		44.58% (G:7.51% B:0.29%)
55.42% (G:22.24% B:2.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.090...-0.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 7/6eq: -0.101 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		43.53% (G:7.38% B:0.29%)
56.47% (G:21.55% B:1.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.111...-0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 04 seconds
5.Rollout124/23* 7/4eq: -0.139 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:		44.37% (G:12.48% B:0.55%)
55.63% (G:33.16% B:1.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.150...-0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 49 seconds
6.Rollout124/23* 18/15eq: -0.154 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:		46.72% (G:12.06% B:0.65%)
53.28% (G:36.52% B:4.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.165...-0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds
7.Rollout124/23* 8/5eq: -0.172 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent:		43.90% (G:12.58% B:0.61%)
56.10% (G:34.45% B:1.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.183...-0.161) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 16 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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