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football by the book

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 21 May 2008, at 12:06 a.m.

In Response To: football by the book (bob koca)

1) Down by 15 and score a touchdown with 3 minutes left. Go for 2 or go for 1? Why?

There are other factors in these questions that may sometimes need to be considered. For now we'll overlook them and take an overview of the question, but things like "time outs remaining" could be, perhaps should be, noted.

I'm talking out of my ass here and no longer watch football but we'll see how much sense I can make out of it. I go for 2 now. You are going to have to go for 2 at some point, why not do it now so that if you fail you can adjust your play for the rest of the game accordingly? If you don't make the two pointer now you may decide to onside kick immediately (whereas if you take the one point you wouldn't do this).

2) Down by 14 and score a touchdown with 3 minutes left. Go for 2 or go for 1? Why?

To answer this intelligently I think I'd have to know the % of successful 2 point conversions. If it's over 50% I guess go for two now? This gives up the rare scenario of TD+1, FG, FG, but with so little time left that's almost a no factor. It gives you the win if you're successful on the first attempt and then only need the extra point on the second TD. Worst case scenario, you miss the 2 point conversion, actually get the other TD, and go for it again.

Stick

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