| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 9/8 | eq: +0.656 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.73% (G:6.24% B:0.11%)
17.27% (G:0.60% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.653...+0.658) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 5/4 | eq: +0.555 (-0.100) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.91% (G:8.60% B:0.22%)
22.09% (G:1.31% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.553...+0.558) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Stick's original position is shown above. Making the 8pt is easily best. Making the 4pt is a whopper.
Two variants are shown below (side-by-side, if your window is wide).
In Variant 1, Blue's 6pt spare is stacked on the 5pt. It is still clearly correct to make the 8pt, but the error in making the 4pt is cut in half (.051).
In Variant 2 (the extreme one), Blue's 5pt has a fifth checker stacked on it. Now making the 8pt and making the 4pt are tied.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 9/8 | eq: +0.609 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.85% (G:6.25% B:0.13%)
19.15% (G:0.91% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.607...+0.612) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 5/4 | eq: +0.559 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.12% (G:8.45% B:0.24%)
21.88% (G:1.31% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.556...+0.561) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 9/8 | eq: +0.548 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.41% (G:5.89% B:0.12%)
21.59% (G:1.23% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.546...+0.550) - [62.7%]
Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 5/4 | eq: +0.547 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.88% (G:7.54% B:0.19%)
22.12% (G:1.50% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.545...+0.549) - [37.3%]
Duration: 9 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 9072 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98091720
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
The first of the two (side-by-side) diagrams below is a dramatic demonstration of the same theme. Even with six checkers on the 5pt, it is a whopper (according to XGR++) to unstack one of them to make the 5pt. Making the 10pt is the standout play.
There is a limit, though (see second diagram below). With a seventh checker on the 6pt (though that is not the only factor in play), making the 10pt becomes a double-whopper, for a reversal of .307!
Nack
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 16/10 11/10 | eq: +0.453 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.25% (G:4.10% B:0.05%)
35.75% (G:2.62% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 11/5 6/5 | eq: +0.347 (-0.106) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.21% (G:4.23% B:0.06%)
39.79% (G:5.11% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 11/5 6/5 | eq: +0.501 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.73% (G:2.99% B:0.04%)
35.27% (G:2.35% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 16/10 11/10 | eq: +0.300 (-0.201) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.59% (G:2.20% B:0.03%)
40.41% (G:2.57% B:0.02%) | |
|
