This is not even close and has little to do with the cube location. The right play is generally simply the right play regardless of where the cube is. Yes, there will be the ultra rare situation where that thought process does apply but I hear people using it quite liberally as a justification for a play to situations where it doesn't matter. Come around the corner now and you shouldn't have many problems making the 5pt in the future. Example scenario other than throwing a natural is bringing two down from the midpoint which will often give you at least 4 active builders potentially over multiple turns to make it.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--b---EDB--AeB----Abcb-a--:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 18/11 | eq: +0.849 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.13% (G:6.08% B:0.17%)
25.87% (G:2.84% B:0.06%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 11/5 6/5 | eq: +0.688 (-0.161) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.12% (G:12.32% B:0.55%)
31.88% (G:7.47% B:0.18%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10