The race seems to be the deciding factor here. We are way ahead after the roll (about 15 EPCs?), so just race with 20/16(2). Other plays keep more contact, but surrenders too much outfield control and are harder to bring home. Not what we want when leading the race.
I've played the same as Sean here: 20/18(2) 3/1(2). Knew it's worse for the race, but thought it gives me enough compensation in contact value.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/16(2) | eq: +0,533 |
| Player: Opponent: | 64,80% (G:7,11% B:0,11%) 35,20% (G:1,14% B:0,01%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,527...+0,539) - [100,0%] Duration: 3 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/18(2) 9/7 3/1 | eq: +0,489 (-0,044) |
| Player: Opponent: | 62,64% (G:8,17% B:0,11%) 37,36% (G:1,36% B:0,01%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,482...+0,497) - [0,0%] Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 20/18(2) 3/1(2) | eq: +0,467 (-0,066) |
| Player: Opponent: | 62,30% (G:7,46% B:0,09%) 37,70% (G:1,74% B:0,03%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,459...+0,475) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 20/16 9/7 3/1 | eq: +0,448 (-0,085) |
| Player: Opponent: | 62,03% (G:12,28% B:0,19%) 37,97% (G:3,18% B:0,03%) | Conf.: ± 0,016 (+0,432...+0,464) - [0,0%] Duration: 24,4 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout3 | 20/18 20/16 9/7 | eq: +0,365 (-0,168) |
| Player: Opponent: | 60,53% (G:9,43% B:0,16%) 39,47% (G:3,56% B:0,03%) | Conf.: ± 0,020 (+0,345...+0,385) - [0,0%] Duration: 33,1 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout3 | 20/18 20/16 3/1 | eq: +0,354 (-0,178) |
| Player: Opponent: | 59,40% (G:11,04% B:0,35%) 40,60% (G:4,65% B:0,05%) | Conf.: ± 0,020 (+0,334...+0,375) - [0,0%] Duration: 31,4 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout3 | 20/18 9/7 3/1(2) | eq: +0,317 (-0,215) |
| Player: Opponent: | 58,17% (G:10,71% B:0,17%) 41,83% (G:3,79% B:0,03%) | Conf.: ± 0,020 (+0,297...+0,337) - [0,0%] Duration: 31,1 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout3 | 20/16 3/1(2) | eq: +0,236 (-0,297) |
| Player: Opponent: | 56,25% (G:11,24% B:0,19%) 43,75% (G:4,98% B:0,11%) | Conf.: ± 0,021 (+0,215...+0,257) - [0,0%] Duration: 33,5 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|