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You should know the cube action - Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 12:50 p.m.

In Response To: You should know the cube action (Stick)

I think in practice you may be able to skate by cubing this now expecting some drops. In a chouette I'd certainly double. Original position followed by a rollout assuming we roll a [63] and close him out. It is only a small pass after a closeout depending on with which spares we closed him out.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-BCCC-A---------A--d-d--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.84% (G:1.94% B:0.09%) 25.98% (G:1.93% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.463 +0.920
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.844±0.006 (+0.838..+0.850)
Redouble/Take:+0.763 (-0.080)±0.009 (+0.754..+0.773)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.156)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58337315
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCBC-----------A--d-d--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 21.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.582 +1.155
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.995 (-0.005)±0.004 (+0.990..+0.999)
Redouble/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)±0.008 (+1.020..+1.036)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58337315
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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