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Bear-off play

Posted By: Michael
Date: Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 3:53 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-off play (Karol Szczerek)

I think this is a risk Vs reward case.

If we hit then if she dances (she does 1/3 times) we fall with 63, 62,52,21,43 get hit 1/3 times on next exchange and this should have some cost (considering the opponent's 2 home blots.Let's say we lose half the games from that, that's a total of 0.55/36 reduction of our GWC from the current 80%+ down to zero.Total of -1.22% GWC

The reward derives from picking another checker plus nullifying her 55s and 66s 65,and partially the 44 (let's say total 5/36) that would bring the game from the current 80%+ down to what 60% on the average? Total reward +2.77 GWC+ the gain of picking one more checker.

I am not sure how accurate this assessment is but even if the + and - of the GWC were equal, then we would still be left with the reward of picking one more checker.

5/4* 4/0

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