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football by the book

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 21 May 2008, at 5:11 p.m.

In Response To: football by the book (bob koca)

Let's see...assume that the only way you can win is to get a 2nd TD. If you go for 2 now and make it, you win all those games (40%). If you go for 2 now and miss, you still win a second conversion + overtime 50% of the time, so (60%)(40%)(50%), which adds up to 52%. That's slightly better than the 50% you have in going for OT by two one-point PATs.

However, if going for 2 is a 39% proposition, your odds are only 48%, which is slightly less than you would have in going for one.

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