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football by the book

Posted By: John Little
Date: Thursday, 22 May 2008, at 1:11 a.m.

In Response To: football by the book (bob koca)

1) Several assumptions first: Evenly matched opponents. The chance of having more than two possessions is to small to be considered here. There is zero chance that you'll be playing for a win rather than a tie in regulation because the odds of making any two point conversion are below the 50% shot you've got starting with the coin toss in overtime. Even if you had an "unstoppable" play a la the great Statue of Liberty executed by Boise State in the '07 Fiesta Bowl, this would be true because the chances of having two such plays are negligible. As an aside, I heard from a coworker who had a kid on the team that the hardest thing about that play was keeping the players from busting out laughing when they walked out onto the field because they knew that Oklahoma was fucked.

There's no advantage to scoring the two points first, whereas there is a considerable disadvantage to trying and failing that goes beyond the fact that the game's over regardless of when the two point try is missed. Football is a game where emotion plays a considerable role, owing to the fact that a good portion of any play amounts to little more than physical combat. If the game ends after the first two point try fails, all of the slime equity generated by inspired defensive play goes right out the window. If the game still hangs in the balance you can bet that the D will be playing its heart out to either generate a turnover or simply turn the ball over on downs. By the same token, you can assume that the offense would find an extra gear on a two point play to tie, as opposed to a two point play to simply extend the game.

This one's a next-you'd always go for one first.

2) This one's debatable. Based on pure statistics you'd go for one, but a heavy 'dog or a team with something up their sleeve a la Boise State might do better trying to shorten the game. The BG analogy would be a weaker player capable of recognizing doubling opportunities in non-contact positions that negate his opponent's superior skill and put more of his future in the gentle hands of the dice.

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