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football by the book

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Thursday, 22 May 2008, at 2:00 a.m.

In Response To: football by the book (John Little)

If you want to talk about emotion and momentum wouldn't scoring the two pointer first give even more of a boost?

You say there is benefit that goes beyond the fact that the game is over regardless of when the two pointer is missed. Let's say we accept that the team would try harder if there is only time for one last possession being down 8 instead of down by 9. If they are destined to miss the two point try regardless of when they attempt it then so what? They are more likely to lose by just 1 point but not more likely to win the game.

I think the major consideration is that the chance of 2 more possessions is not too small to be considered and you would want to know sooner rather than later if it is needed.

For the second situation what pure statistics are you using? Note that it is more complicated than just having less than 50% chance of a 2 point conversion. Let's even say that the teams are equally matched as a simplifying assumption.

Bob Koca

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