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football by the book

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Thursday, 22 May 2008, at 2:06 a.m.

In Response To: football by the book (Keene)

Keene,

Suppose you are playing a game where you have a coin that lands heads with probability p1 and a second independent coin that lands heads with probability p2 with p1 > p2. You win the game if both tosses are heads. You can choose the order in which the coiins are tossed. The chance of winning this game is p1 * p2. The order of the tosses does not matter. But your reasoning would say to toss the coin with the lower probability first. You are playing to hold on to a win chance as long as possible, but that is not the same as playing to give yourself the best chance of winning.

Bob Koca

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