Four Variants

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Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 4 June 2017, at 6:46 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout ATS and for money (Timothy Chow)

White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 94

7 point match

pip: 80
score: 3

Blue is Player 2

XGID=-ADCCa-B----c-----Bc--ccb-:1:-1:1:43:3:0:0:7:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ 7/3 4/1 eq: -0.394
Player:
Opponent: 47.53% (G:3.42% B:0.04%)
52.47% (G:6.15% B:0.17%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.401...-0.388) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq: -0.440 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent: 47.39% (G:5.03% B:0.07%)
52.61% (G:11.15% B:0.62%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.448...-0.432) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/4 7/3 eq: -0.479 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent: 46.86% (G:4.93% B:0.11%)
53.14% (G:8.39% B:0.50%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.486...-0.471) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 36 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Tim's rollout of his original position appears above. 7/3 4/1 is clearly best.
Four variants appear below. In each case, one checker has been moved, and in all cases 18/11 is clearly best.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101

7 point match

pip: 80
score: 3

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-ADCCa-B----d-----Bb--ccb-:1:-1:1:43:3:0:0:7:10
White is adjusted 6/13 from the original

1. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq: -0.210
Player:
Opponent: 52.71% (G:7.32% B:0.15%)
47.29% (G:10.14% B:0.30%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.216...-0.204) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 7/3 4/1 eq: -0.280 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent: 51.48% (G:5.75% B:0.04%)
48.52% (G:6.10% B:0.15%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.287...-0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/4 7/3 eq: -0.388 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent: 49.49% (G:6.69% B:0.05%)
50.51% (G:8.75% B:0.26%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.397...-0.380) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90021487
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 89

7 point match

pip: 80
score: 3

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-ADCCa-B----c-----Bb--ccc-:1:-1:1:43:3:0:0:7:10
White is adjusted 6/1 from the original

1. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq: -0.310
Player:
Opponent: 48.17% (G:3.98% B:0.00%)
51.83% (G:8.19% B:0.44%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.318...-0.302) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35.9 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 7/3 4/1 eq: -0.346 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 48.25% (G:2.70% B:0.03%)
51.75% (G:4.19% B:0.09%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.352...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.2 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/4 7/3 eq: -0.374 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent: 47.87% (G:3.57% B:0.03%)
52.13% (G:5.86% B:0.21%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.382...-0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.1 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90021487
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94

7 point match

pip: 79
score: 3

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-BCCCa-B----c-----Bc--ccb-:1:-1:1:43:3:0:0:7:10
Black is adjusted 2/1 from the original

1. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq: -0.192
Player:
Opponent: 53.08% (G:4.07% B:0.07%)
46.92% (G:7.62% B:0.17%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.196...-0.188) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38.2 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 7/4 7/3 eq: -0.279 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent: 50.85% (G:3.00% B:0.03%)
49.15% (G:5.48% B:0.19%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.286...-0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.6 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/3 4/1 eq: -0.386 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent: 47.90% (G:3.57% B:0.08%)
52.10% (G:6.18% B:0.12%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.393...-0.379) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.6 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90021487
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94

7 point match

pip: 78
score: 3

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-ADCCaB-----c-----Bc--ccb-:1:-1:1:43:3:0:0:7:10
Black owns his 6pt (instead of 7pt)

1. XG Roller++ 18/11 eq: -0.233
Player:
Opponent: 50.86% (G:5.87% B:0.07%)
49.14% (G:7.75% B:0.16%)
2. XG Roller++ 18/14 4/1 eq: -0.409 (-0.177)
Player:
Opponent: 45.54% (G:4.95% B:0.07%)
54.46% (G:7.19% B:0.13%)
3. XG Roller++ 6/3 6/2 eq: -0.468 (-0.236)
Player:
Opponent: 46.85% (G:4.17% B:0.05%)
53.15% (G:8.32% B:0.18%)
4. XG Roller++ 6/2 4/1 eq: -0.493 (-0.260)
Player:
Opponent: 45.87% (G:3.11% B:0.03%)
54.13% (G:7.95% B:0.16%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

How did I get myself into this position?
Timothy Chow -- Friday, 2 June 2017, at 11:57 p.m.
- How did I get myself into this position?
  scotty -- Saturday, 3 June 2017, at 1:13 a.m.
- How did I get myself into this position?
  Michael -- Saturday, 3 June 2017, at 12:53 p.m.
  - How did I get myself into this position?
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 4 June 2017, at 2:21 a.m.
- Rollout ATS and for money
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 4 June 2017, at 5:27 p.m.
  - Four Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 4 June 2017, at 6:46 p.m.
- How did I get myself into this position?
  ah_clem -- Sunday, 4 June 2017, at 6:37 p.m.

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