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football by the book

Posted By: John Little
Date: Thursday, 22 May 2008, at 6:13 a.m.

In Response To: football by the book (bob koca)

That is faulty though because there is a greater chance of it being a 3 possession game if you had gone for it and missed originally.

I don't see a causal connection between the miss and the factors that might create enough time for another possession like poor clock management or turnovers. You'd be more likely to resort to kicking onside, but that's not a real high-percentage play. I still contend that "greater chance" is synonymous with "slightly less minuscule" when we're talking about the likelihood of getting two more offensive possessions after kicking the ball away with three minutes to go.

A three-possession game with one scoreless possession would be identical to a two-possession game for the purpose of our argument, and if they scored on each of three possessions the two point conversion would never be a factor.

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