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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 11 June 2017, at 11:27 p.m.

In Response To: Just another 3a7a cube (Timothy Chow)

This is another one of those cases where Blue wins a lot of gammons but loses almost no gammons, and White is relatively close to the take/pass borderline.

OTB I did not double, and it seems quite difficult to me to estimate wins and gammons well enough here to tell that it's close to the take/pass borderline.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 68
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EBcCBB------aa--a---cbbbA:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.57% (G:30.45% B:1.64%) 73.41% (G:31.06% B:6.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.43% (G:0.95% B:0.03%) 26.59% (G:1.01% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.787 +1.355
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.799 (-0.132)±0.010 (+0.789..+0.809)
Double/Take:+0.930±0.014 (+0.917..+0.944)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.070)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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