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Not-good-enough CUSP

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 June 2017, at 4:28 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 68
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EBcCBB------aa--a---cbbbA:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.57% (G:30.45% B:1.64%) 73.41% (G:31.06% B:6.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.43% (G:0.95% B:0.03%) 26.59% (G:1.01% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.787 +1.355
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.799 (-0.132)±0.010 (+0.789..+0.809)
Double/Take:+0.930±0.014 (+0.917..+0.944)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.070)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

The rollout of Tim's original position appears above.

Moving Blue's spare from 4pt to 2pt, as shown below puts the position on the border of good enough / not good enough to double:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 66
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ECcBBB------aa--a---cbbbA:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.85% (G:29.15% B:1.08%) 70.60% (G:29.53% B:3.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.15% (G:1.59% B:0.04%) 29.40% (G:1.68% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.706 +1.207
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.700 (-0.005)±0.005 (+0.695..+0.705)
Double/Take:+0.705±0.009 (+0.696..+0.714)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.295)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89160966
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:82.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

As you would now expect, if you move the Blue spare one more pip to the 1pt, you cross into not-good-enough-to-double territory.

Nack

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