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Some rollout statistics

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 15 June 2017, at 4:12 p.m.

In Response To: Thanks, Timothy! (Paul Weaver)

I performed only a short rollout (1296 trials) of the 3a5a score, but the rollout statistics already tell us this:

After 7/1* 6/2:
Blue gets in an initial double about 43% of the time. It's accepted about 42% of the time. The average equity when it's D/T is about 0.8; the average equity when it's D/P is about 1.5.

After 9/5 7/1*:
Blue gets in an initial double about 55% of the time. It's accepted only about 9% of the time. The average equity when it's D/T is about 0.8; the average equity when it's D/P is about 1.2.

So you can get a sense of the cube efficiency immediately from the rollout statistics, without having to do additional rollouts or even identifying when the initial doubles occur.

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