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Position from Phil and Ben video

Posted By: vsn
Date: Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 6:34 p.m.

The following position doesn't make sense. Looking at the top 2 plays, and accounting for wins/losses and gammon wins/loses, white stands to win less on average with the best play. Moreover, black already has the cube, so there are no scenarios where white can cash.

Just looking at the net wins/losses and gammons already doesnt make sense (you gain an extra 2.4% wins, with an insignificant 0.6% gammons, at the cost of 10% gammons), but I did the math anyway.

Multiplying 2 (value of cube) by win and gammon percentages for each player results in the following (I'm ignoring bgs, since they are insignificant)

Play 1 (1.272 + .122) - (.728 + .344) = 0.322

Play 2 (1.224 + .11) - (.776 + .146) = 0.412

So with the "best" play, white wins on average .322 points, and with the second best white wins .412 points.

What am I missing here?

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 82 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 126 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--aBBCBBA---------bccCbbb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
to play 54

1.	XG Roller+	21/12	eq: +0.106
	Player: Opponent: 63.64% (G:6.14% B:0.19%) 36.36% (G:17.23% B:0.17%)
2.	XG Roller+	21/16 8/4	eq: +0.069 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 61.20% (G:5.47% B:0.16%) 38.80% (G:7.31% B:0.06%)
3.	3-ply	21/17 8/3	eq: +0.047 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 60.36% (G:5.57% B:0.15%) 39.64% (G:6.55% B:0.05%)
4.	1-ply	21/16 5/1	eq: -0.243 (-0.349)
	Player: Opponent: 52.14% (G:5.66% B:0.15%) 47.86% (G:17.22% B:0.28%)
5.	1-ply	8/3 5/1	eq: -0.304 (-0.410)
	Player: Opponent: 46.40% (G:4.49% B:0.14%) 53.60% (G:8.86% B:0.08%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Position from Phil and Ben video
  vsn -- Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 6:34 p.m.
  • Position from Phil and Ben video
    Mike Clapsadle -- Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 7:47 p.m.
  • Position from Phil and Ben video
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 9:18 p.m.
    • Position from Phil and Ben video
      vsn -- Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 10:16 p.m.
      • Position from Phil and Ben video
        Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 10:23 p.m.
        • Position from Phil and Ben video
          vsn -- Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 10:32 p.m.
          • Position from Phil and Ben video
            Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 21 June 2017, at 12:04 a.m.
            • Position from Phil and Ben video
              Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 21 June 2017, at 12:58 a.m.
            • Position from Phil and Ben video
              vsn -- Wednesday, 21 June 2017, at 2:03 a.m.
  • Position from Phil and Ben video
    Michael -- Tuesday, 20 June 2017, at 10:03 p.m.
  • If you think this is a problem....try this one
    Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 21 June 2017, at 1:51 p.m.
    • If you think this is a problem....try this one
      Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 21 June 2017, at 3:10 p.m.
  • Two Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 5:45 a.m.