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Blitz tactics -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 10 July 2017, at 9:37 p.m.

In Response To: Blitz tactics (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148
Unlimited Game
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB--BC-Ba-Ac----cbe--AB--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Original position


1.Rollout111/9* 8/4eq: +0,609
Player:
Opponent:		67,23% (G:48,42% B:0,33%)
32,77% (G:8,56% B:0,46%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,602...+0,615) - [100,0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout111/9* 9/5eq: +0,585 (-0,023)
Player:
Opponent:		67,05% (G:46,16% B:0,32%)
32,95% (G:7,75% B:0,38%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,578...+0,592) - [0,0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout28/4 6/4eq: +0,551 (-0,058)
Player:
Opponent:		65,61% (G:45,69% B:0,27%)
34,39% (G:7,40% B:0,36%)		Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,542...+0,560) - [0,0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 47 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Nice find; I can recall seeing this radical-solution theme swing the best play only a few times.

Above is Karol's rollout of his original position. The awkwardness of follow-up numbers to the typical 11/9*/5 play (64 54 66 33 immediately) motivate Blue to make an unusual hit-and-slot play (to increase flexibility).

A change of 1 pip (22/21), which will improve 64 and 54, is enough to restore the natural play. See Variant 1 below.






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB--BC-Ba-Ac----cbe-A-B--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 22/21.)


1.Rollout111/9* 9/5eq: +0.728
Player:
Opponent:		70.61% (G:50.53% B:0.34%)
29.39% (G:6.69% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.724...+0.733) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout111/9* 8/4eq: +0.714 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		69.95% (G:51.56% B:0.36%)
30.05% (G:7.74% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.709...+0.719) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: +0.686 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		69.03% (G:49.70% B:0.33%)
30.97% (G:6.45% B:0.34%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.681...+0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 08 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


From the original, a change of 23/22 instead helps but not enough. It greatly strengthens 66 but weakens 33. See Variant 2 below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB--BC-Ba-Ac----cbe--BA--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 23/22.)


1.Rollout111/9* 8/4eq: +0.684
Player:
Opponent:		69.25% (G:50.16% B:0.34%)
30.75% (G:7.64% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.679...+0.688) - [97.8%]
Duration: 20 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout111/9* 9/5eq: +0.677 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		69.50% (G:48.53% B:0.33%)
30.50% (G:7.11% B:0.34%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.672...+0.682) - [2.2%]
Duration: 20 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout28/4 6/4eq: +0.637 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		67.96% (G:47.75% B:0.32%)
32.04% (G:6.87% B:0.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.629...+0.646) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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