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Match cube - Rollout and Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 22 July 2017, at 6:23 p.m.

In Response To: Match cube - RO (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 88
13 point match
pip: 73
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BCCBBA---a-A-b--b-cAbb-c-:2:-1:-1:D:7:6:0:13:10

Original position


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67,88% (G:11,35% B:0,33%) 69,23% (G:10,72% B:0,14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32,12% (G:5,03% B:0,05%) 30,77% (G:6,00% B:0,05%)
Cubeless Equities +0,447 +0,932
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,696 (-0,236)±0,002 (+0,693..+0,698)
Redouble/Take:+0,932±0,003 (+0,928..+0,935)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,068)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds

Karol's rollout of his original position appears above.

A contrasting variant appears below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 91
13 point match
pip: 73
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BCCBBA---a-A-b--b-cAbbc--:2:-1:-1:00:7:6:0:13:10

Variant (White owns her 2pt instead of 1pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.42% (G:14.11% B:0.73%) 71.58% (G:9.25% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.58% (G:5.90% B:0.11%) 28.42% (G:5.41% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.522 +1.017
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.714 (-0.286)±0.002 (+0.712..+0.716)
Redouble/Take:+1.017 (+0.017)±0.002 (+1.014..+1.019)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35470494
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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