          
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 73 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 201
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--AAAB-BA-------ab-cccCCcA:1:1:1:13:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 13 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 3/2 | eq: -0,334 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44,21% (G:3,04% B:0,12%)
55,79% (G:41,89% B:3,59%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,345...-0,323) - [100,0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 00 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 4/3 | eq: -0,372 (-0,038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43,42% (G:2,64% B:0,12%)
56,58% (G:42,76% B:3,71%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (-0,384...-0,361) - [0,0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 7/6 | eq: -0,399 (-0,065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42,87% (G:2,14% B:0,09%)
57,13% (G:43,93% B:3,89%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,410...-0,387) - [0,0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 01 second |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
My thinking was basically that sure, I guess we hit if we can after making a point, but it didn't feel like a big enough gain to get to hit with that offense that we would concede our opportunity to prepare for a purer and better offense later.
Instead, my idea was to accept that we won't hit in a while, and build an offense that does some damage when we do.
In addition, there was the obvious aversion to making deep points when we know we have to contain him. And the 6-point really feels critical to make asap.
It probably is a big factor that it is so easy for us to flood the outfield after hitting, since in all likelihood he is down to a three prime when we do. The fact that our timing is too good seems to matter as well, perhaps because our backgame will still be well timed after hitting and failing to contain him?
Anyhow, this was very hard for me, as I am pretty sure I would have played 7/6. Luckily, the position came up OTB in a friend's match, not mine :)
Since we want to hit immediately after playing 3/2, I get that that play may be better than my play 7/6 in the following variation (43):
   
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 66 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 197
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--AAABAAA-------a--cddDCc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 38,78% (G:0,63% B:0,03%) | 39,26% (G:0,63% B:0,04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 61,22% (G:47,19% B:4,78%) | 60,74% (G:47,23% B:5,15%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,738 | -1,464 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | -0,587 | |
| Redouble/Take: | -1,990 (-1,403) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,587) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31,9% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
versus
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 66 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 197
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--B-AB-BA-------a--cddDCc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 39,87% (G:1,89% B:0,08%) | 39,37% (G:1,89% B:0,08%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 60,13% (G:44,95% B:4,79%) | 60,63% (G:45,46% B:4,87%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,680 | -1,392 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | -0,520 | |
| Redouble/Take: | -1,929 (-1,409) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,520) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 32,5% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
However, I was very surprised that it is only marginally worse in this (constructed) scenario:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 63 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 197
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--AAABAAA----------dddDCc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 39,30% (G:0,04% B:0,00%) | 38,99% (G:0,03% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 60,70% (G:47,15% B:5,00%) | 61,01% (G:47,36% B:5,53%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,735 | -1,497 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | -0,587 | |
| Redouble/Take: | -2,018 (-1,430) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,587) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 32,2% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
versus
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 63 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 197
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--B-AB-BA----------dddDCc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 38,90% (G:0,03% B:0,00%) | 38,74% (G:0,05% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 61,10% (G:46,98% B:5,43%) | 61,26% (G:47,30% B:5,37%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,746 | -1,503 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | -0,601 | |
| Redouble/Take: | -1,998 (-1,397) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,601) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31,8% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Since the position isn't all that exotic I would tend to trust XG on this one. Do you?