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SHOTS GALORE, conclusion

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 30 July 2017, at 7:30 p.m.

In Response To: SHOTS GALORE, P.S. (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 73
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 197
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AAABAAA-------ab-cccDCc-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

White on roll, after Blue has slotted another point


It only occurred to me this morning, but (after Blue's 7/6), White is supposed to leave two blots even with double 1s!

In summary, after Blue's 7/6, White should leave a single blot with 13 numbers (66 54 53 52 43 42 32), and a double-blot with 15 additional numbers (64 63 61 51 41 31 21 11). White should play safe with only 8 numbers (the forced 65 62 55, and the obvious 44 33 22).

It is worth noting as a practical matter that 3/2 vs 7/6 is a much closer decision (likely even inverted) if Blue "knows" that a particular opponent will (regardless) play as immediately safe as possible with all rolls.

The further conclusion is that if you are on the White side of this situation and your opponents double- or multiple-slot, be willing to "pay now" much more aggressively than perhaps you have been doing (so that you can bear in more safely next turn). Whether your opponents are using this cool multi-slot tactic because (a) they don't know it offers you a great risk/reward opportunity to pay now, or (b) they're hoping that you don't know... don't let them "get away" with it!

Nack

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