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Chance of one loss player winning twice to win

Posted By: Mike Clapsadle
Date: Saturday, 5 August 2017, at 11:36 p.m.

In Response To: Chance of one loss player winning twice to win (Bob Koca)

One reason, and I'm not really sure how to express it, has to do with when there's a better player needing to win twice, they'll win it more often than 25%, and when the worse player needs to win twice, they lose more often in the first match, thus taking some more of the wins away from the better player that they would have won in the second match. I know that probably didn't make much sense.

Say you have a player that will consistently beat another opponent 70% of the time. If he needs to win twice, his chances of winning the tournament are .7*.7=.49 If the places were switched, the player that will win consistently 30% of the time will win the tournament .3*.3=.09 If you take the average, the player that needs to win twice wins 29% of the time. The only way the player that needs to win twice would win 25% of the time is if they were exactly evenly matched, where both players win exactly 50% of the time over the long run.

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