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damn export settings....

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 29 May 2008, at 2:47 a.m.

In Response To: damn export settings.... (dc-ohio)

Right, the bot doesn't pass, with the G11 MET. The bot's evaluation says "double/take" after both 5-5 plays. If it were passing, your evaluation and rollout of the 5-5 play would have shown EMG equity = 1.000.

Anyway, since it is doubling (and not passing) after both plays, your rollout of the 5-5 play is also a rollout of Double/Take. And so while your rollout of the cube decision after the OTB play has some new data (it shows that not doubling is a blunder) it has nothing new to say about the Take decision (that's already answered with your rollout of the 5-5 play).

The bot doesn't pass with the Snowie MET, either. But a rollout of the 5-5 play will show EMG equity over 1.000 after the play that takes off two checkers.

If we alter the position by giving Blue one more checker off ...

The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 0, Hero 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 7: Opponent to play 55

Opponent68


2X2X2X2X2X3X ' '1X '1X '

'3O ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

Hero31

Position ID: DgAAaNt2JAAAAA Match ID: EoE2AQAAAAAA

... then the bot doubles and passes after either play, and the evaluation shows the moves as equal:

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 11/1 9/4 6/1 -1.000
0.196 0.000 0.000 - 0.804 0.000 0.000
• 2 2 11/6 9/4 5/off(2) -1.000 ( +0.000)
0.176 0.000 0.000 - 0.824 0.000 0.000

And so -- no surprise -- does a rollout:

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 11/1 9/4 6/1 -1.000
0.1960.0000.000-0.8040.0000.000 -0.608 -1.000
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.000
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
50000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823413617 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R 11/6 9/4 5/off(2) -1.000 ( +0.000)
0.1760.0000.000-0.8240.0000.000 -0.647 -1.000
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.000
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
50000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823413617 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

And so -- unlike with the original position -- we'd need to do separate rollouts of the cube decisions after each play, if we wanted to verify that Double and Pass were correct, or if we wanted to know what our OTB equity would be if we suspected that White might take a cube.

The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 0, Hero 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 8: Hero on roll, cube decision?

Opponent48


2X2X2X3X '4X ' ' ' ' ' '

'3O ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

Hero31

Position ID: 284DAIADAAACAA Match ID: UgkgAQAAAAAA

• Hero doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.656(Money: +0.656)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass +1.000
2.Double, take +1.267 +0.267
3.No double +0.959 -0.041
Proper cube action:Redouble, pass
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Hero owns 4-cube0.8280.0000.000-0.1720.0000.000 +0.656 +0.959
Standard error0.0010.0000.000-0.0010.0000.000 0.002 0.004
Player Opponent owns 8-cube0.8290.0000.000-0.1710.0000.000 +1.291 +1.267
Standard error0.0010.0000.000-0.0010.0000.000 0.004 0.004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823413617 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 0, Hero 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 8: Hero on roll, cube decision?

Opponent48


4X2X2X3X2X2X ' ' ' ' ' '

'3O ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

Hero31

Position ID: b7sNAAAOAAAIAA Match ID: UgkgAQAAAAAA

• Hero doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.605(Money: +0.605)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass +1.000
2.Double, take +1.163 +0.163
3.No double +0.973 -0.027
Proper cube action:Redouble, pass
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Hero owns 4-cube0.8030.0000.000-0.1970.0000.000 +0.605 +0.973
Standard error0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.001 0.002
Player Opponent owns 8-cube0.8040.0000.000-0.1960.0000.000 +1.190 +1.163
Standard error0.0010.0000.000-0.0010.0000.000 0.004 0.004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 823413617 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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