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BGonline.org Forums
Draw question
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Draw question (Stick)
Date: Monday, 4 September 2017, at 2:53 a.m.
"If you’re the 33rd best play in the draw, you could end up playing the top seed in the first round, but you could just as easily end up facing the 128th player.'
If I understand the method correctly it is not just as easy. The chance of first round being against any particular top 32 seed would be 1/96 and the chance of meeting some top 32 seed is 1/3.
The chance of playing any particular other person would be the other 2/3 divided among the other 95 players which gives 2/285.
It is close to 50% more likely to play the top seed.
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