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PR and luck in live matches

Posted By: sebalotek
Date: Wednesday, 20 September 2017, at 6:14 p.m.

In Response To: PR and luck in live matches (Jeom)

I think Bob and Dmitriy give good advice. You should definitely factor in match length plus also try to integrate a larger sample set to increase accuracy.

I'm not a mathematician, but I created a table some time ago which attempts to make similar predictions based on PR.

Even though I did not use formulas as complicated as yours, surprisingly, I might have been on the right track :) There seems to be a reasonably close correlation between my figures and your figures, especially around the 5 point match length column in my table..

0 = 0.5

-1 = 0.5232978

-2 = 0.5464947

-3 = 0.5694914

-4 = 0.5921922

-5 = 0.6145063

-6 = 0.6363491

-8 = 0.6783219

-10 = 0.7176001

Backgammon MWC estimator by pr difference and match length v03 from Wayne Joseph

And thanks for posting - I would be very interested to see the results of any refinements you make.

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