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PR and luck in live matches

Posted By: Michael
Date: Wednesday, 20 September 2017, at 6:35 p.m.

In Response To: PR and luck in live matches (Jeom)

Jeom wrote:

I have fetched 936 actual live matches from Backgammon Studio and created a dataset including the PR level of two players and the winner of the match. 501 matches are to 11 points, 360 matches are to 17 points, and 75 matches are to 25 points.

I have done something similar in the past, but for a different purpose. My scope was to convert XG PRs to abs. Fibs Rating.The reason was because knowing the abs. Fibs Rating we could use the already existing FIBS formula to get the possibility of winning at a certain match Length. The conversion should be straight forward because both the XG PR and the abs FIBS rating are based on the total error rate mEMG. Which total is calculated from the checker play error rate and the cube error rate. Both the checker and the cube error rate are more or less the same on XG and GNU/Fibs. However the way the total error rate is calculated (from what I remember) differs making the conversion impossible.

Still if you have the PR of those 936 matches split into checker play error rate and cube error rate, then you could use the existing FIBS formula to calculate winning chances at a certain match Length.

Notice that 1 XG PR difference does not yield the same winning chances at a certain match length. E.g in a match of 7 the winning chances of the player with 4 PR Vs the Player with 5 PR, is not the same as that of a Player with 9 Vs 10.

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