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Hit or no hit

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 22 September 2017, at 9:51 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or no hit (Hank M.)

After no hit with 7/3 7/6 White seems to be at about 31% GWC in a race, before considering the contact.
After a hit with 5/1 3/2*, assuming White's return hits win, she's at about 31% GWC.
In both cases White obviously wins less than that.

After no hit she often fails to escape. That's 16/36 cases, and I suppose her GWC deteriorates into a 10-15% zone. Let's use 12%. In 20/36 escaping cases she's a bit higher than 31% GWC stated above, since rolls with 5 or 6 average at about 9.5 pips instead of 8 pips. That 1.5 pip is worth about 4% GWC, so 31+4 = 35% GWC. Summing up I arrive at just under 25% GWC.

Estimating White's GWC after the hitting play is too complicated to me. If someone can share his/hers method for doing it, I'd be very much interested.

When deciding between no hit and hit in these positions, anytime non-hit play offers below 70% GWC it's usually correct to hit from my short experience. Here, if we hit, we keep a solid 5-prime and White is prone to crunch, so it seems it might be good enough to hit even if a non-hit gives 75% GWC here.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or no hit
  Hank M. -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 3:30 p.m.
  • Hit or no hit
    Michael -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 6:38 p.m.
    • Hit or no hit
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 7:18 p.m.
  • Hit or no hit
    Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 9:51 p.m.
    • Hit or no hit
      neilkaz -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 10:18 p.m.