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Rollout at –7–7 VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 23 September 2017, at 4:25 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout at -7 -7 (KenB)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111 7 point match pip: 144 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-aB-CBAB---AA----cbdCbb--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:7:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	21/15 12/7	eq: +0.9420
	Player: Opponent: 74.42% (G:17.79% B:0.68%) 25.58% (G:5.90% B:0.31%) Conf.: ±0.0065 (+0.9355...+0.9484) - [95.3%] Duration: 1 minute 01 second
2.	Rollout1	21/16 13/7	eq: +0.9334 (-0.0086)
	Player: Opponent: 74.04% (G:18.35% B:0.75%) 25.96% (G:6.26% B:0.29%) Conf.: ±0.0076 (+0.9258...+0.9410) - [4.7%] Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/2* 7/2	eq: +0.9110 (-0.0310)
	Player: Opponent: 71.58% (G:26.98% B:0.96%) 28.42% (G:10.39% B:0.70%) Conf.: ±0.0104 (+0.9006...+0.9214) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/7 12/7	eq: +0.8866 (-0.0553)
	Player: Opponent: 72.39% (G:17.91% B:0.62%) 27.61% (G:6.10% B:0.34%) Conf.: ±0.0073 (+0.8793...+0.8939) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Ken's rollout of his original position (at –7–7) is copied above.

Below are two variants. In Variant 1 (cusp), a similar choice is available except White doesn't crush you with 65P-44K.

Variant 2 also offers the same thematic decision but the 10pt checker (both blot and builder) significantly swings the result.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111 7 point match pip: 145 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-aB-CBBA----AA---cbdCbb--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:7:10
Variant 1 (Same choice as original -- Prime or Blitz)

1.	Rollout1	8/2* 7/2	eq: +0.949
	Player: Opponent: 72.53% (G:26.53% B:0.86%) 27.47% (G:7.90% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.945...+0.952) - [92.3%] Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/15 13/8	eq: +0.945 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 74.28% (G:18.19% B:0.71%) 25.72% (G:6.08% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.941...+0.948) - [7.7%] Duration: 2 minutes 57 seconds
3.	Rollout1	21/16 14/8	eq: +0.936 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 74.11% (G:18.36% B:0.79%) 25.89% (G:6.23% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.932...+0.940) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111 7 point match pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-aB-CBAB-A--A----cbdCbb--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:7:10
Variant 2 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 12/10)

1.	Rollout1	8/2* 7/2	eq: +0.949
	Player: Opponent: 73.35% (G:28.00% B:0.78%) 26.65% (G:8.18% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.945...+0.954) - [100.0%] Duration: 37.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/16 13/7	eq: +0.890 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 74.20% (G:18.16% B:0.56%) 25.80% (G:6.39% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.885...+0.894) - [0.0%] Duration: 30.3 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Simple 65 to play
  KenB -- Thursday, 21 September 2017, at 8:45 p.m.
  • Simple 65 to play
    David Levy -- Thursday, 21 September 2017, at 9:24 p.m.
    • yep
      KenB -- Thursday, 21 September 2017, at 10:05 p.m.
  • Simple 65 to play at actual match score
    KenB -- Thursday, 21 September 2017, at 10:02 p.m.
    • Simple 65 to play at actual match score
      David Levy -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 2:26 a.m.
    • Rollout at score
      KenB -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 4:11 p.m.
  • Simple 65 to play
    scotty -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 6:11 a.m.
  • Simple 65 to play
    Michael -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 10:48 a.m.
  • Rollout at -7 -7
    KenB -- Friday, 22 September 2017, at 4:13 p.m.
    • Rollout at –7–7 VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 23 September 2017, at 4:25 a.m.