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32 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 30 September 2017, at 9:43 p.m.

In Response To: 32 to play ROLLOUT (ah_clem)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 13 point match pip: 80 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AbBC-DCB-a-a-----abbbbb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	7/4 6/4	eq: +0.463
	Player: Opponent: 74.28% (G:4.45% B:0.06%) 25.72% (G:2.09% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.458...+0.467) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.435 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 73.41% (G:4.36% B:0.04%) 26.59% (G:2.28% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.430...+0.440) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/4 6/3	eq: +0.401 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 72.06% (G:4.01% B:0.05%) 27.94% (G:2.66% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.396...+0.407) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/5 7/5	eq: +0.210 (-0.252)
	Player: Opponent: 63.56% (G:8.03% B:0.26%) 36.44% (G:4.38% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.206...+0.215) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
5.	Rollout1	8/6 8/5	eq: +0.059 (-0.404)
	Player: Opponent: 57.09% (G:5.10% B:0.15%) 42.91% (G:5.51% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.055...+0.063) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Thanks, ah_clem, for stepping in and doing a rollout (copied above).

Below is a variant, where another Blue checker is pre-adjusted from 6pt to 4pt. The rollout is won by the same play, which stacks six checkers onto the 4pt.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 13 point match pip: 78 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AbBD-CCB-a-a-----abbbbb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Variant 1

1.	Rollout1	7/4 6/4	eq: +0.373
	Player: Opponent: 71.09% (G:4.26% B:0.06%) 28.91% (G:3.38% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.370...+0.376) - [100.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.343 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 69.54% (G:3.93% B:0.04%) 30.46% (G:3.02% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.340...+0.346) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 36 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/5 7/5	eq: +0.201 (-0.172)
	Player: Opponent: 63.14% (G:7.86% B:0.31%) 36.86% (G:4.10% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.196...+0.206) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

From here, if we adjust White's position by 1 pip (though an important one!) making the 5pt leaps into a tie. (See Variant 2 below.) That pure play (as you pointed out) is a double whopper with cheese in the original position.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122 13 point match pip: 78 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AbBD-CCB-a-a-----babbbb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Variant 2

1.	Rollout1	7/4 6/4	eq: +0.395
	Player: Opponent: 71.77% (G:4.86% B:0.07%) 28.23% (G:3.15% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.393...+0.397) - [99.7%] Duration: 20 minutes 00 second
2.	Rollout1	8/5 7/5	eq: +0.391 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 69.29% (G:13.45% B:1.02%) 30.71% (G:3.26% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.389...+0.393) - [0.3%] Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds
3.	Rollout2	6/1	eq: +0.360 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 70.08% (G:4.72% B:0.07%) 29.92% (G:2.97% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.357...+0.363) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 53 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Restoring Blue's original distribution (four checkers on 6pt), what if White has a less powerful development? Variant 3 below is a common example. It is a whopper for Blue NOT to pay now (by making his 5pt).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 13 point match pip: 80 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AbBC-DCB---c----b-d-bb---:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	8/5 7/5	eq: +0.633
	Player: Opponent: 75.99% (G:22.16% B:0.56%) 24.01% (G:2.32% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.627...+0.639) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
2.	Rollout1	7/4 6/4	eq: +0.517 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 74.59% (G:12.16% B:0.27%) 25.41% (G:1.89% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.512...+0.523) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.464 (-0.169)
	Player: Opponent: 72.67% (G:11.76% B:0.17%) 27.33% (G:2.44% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.458...+0.470) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Returning to the original position (posted at top), the choice of 7/4 6/4 versus 6/1 is influenced in large part by White's wealth of timing. If you move her forward 12 pips, as shown in Variant 4 below, the two plays become tied.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 109 13 point match pip: 80 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AbBC-DCB-a-------abbbbba-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Variant 4

1.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.498
	Player: Opponent: 76.58% (G:3.10% B:0.03%) 23.42% (G:1.47% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.496...+0.500) - [52.3%] Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/4 6/4	eq: +0.498 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 76.15% (G:3.07% B:0.03%) 23.85% (G:1.38% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.496...+0.500) - [47.7%] Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout2	6/4 6/3	eq: +0.457 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 74.76% (G:2.79% B:0.03%) 25.24% (G:1.66% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.453...+0.461) - [0.0%] Duration: 59.4 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/5 7/5	eq: +0.293 (-0.205)
	Player: Opponent: 66.93% (G:8.51% B:0.51%) 33.07% (G:2.72% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.287...+0.298) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 01 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

If you move White forward an 12 additional pips (e.g., 15/9 + 7/1), Blue's 6/1 play takes a clear lead, as shown in Variant 5 below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 97 13 point match pip: 80 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AbBC-DCB-------a--bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Variant 5

1.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.546
	Player: Opponent: 79.22% (G:2.78% B:0.02%) 20.78% (G:0.73% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.544...+0.548) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/4 6/4	eq: +0.513 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 77.71% (G:2.45% B:0.02%) 22.29% (G:0.96% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.511...+0.515) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds
3.	Rollout2	6/4 6/3	eq: +0.490 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 76.72% (G:2.30% B:0.02%) 23.28% (G:0.94% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.487...+0.494) - [0.0%] Duration: 39.1 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/5 7/5	eq: +0.157 (-0.389)
	Player: Opponent: 62.22% (G:3.49% B:0.05%) 37.78% (G:1.76% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.154...+0.159) - [0.0%] Duration: 36.9 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17459709 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• 32 to play
  Hank M. -- Monday, 25 September 2017, at 3:06 a.m.
  • 32 to play
    scotty -- Monday, 25 September 2017, at 6:26 a.m.
  • 32 to play
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 26 September 2017, at 7:35 p.m.
  • 32 to play ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 30 September 2017, at 1:42 p.m.
    • 32 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 September 2017, at 9:43 p.m.
      • 32 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
        Barry Murphy -- Sunday, 1 October 2017, at 3:25 p.m.
        • Las Vegas archive, and your 11 position
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 1 October 2017, at 7:38 p.m.
          • Las Vegas archive, and your 11 position
            Barry Murphy -- Monday, 2 October 2017, at 1:18 p.m.