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32 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Barry Murphy
Date: Sunday, 1 October 2017, at 3:25 p.m.

In Response To: 32 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANTS (Nack Ballard)

Here's a similar position with the same theme. It puzzled me so I asked Mamabear to explain this to me - Here's the position with her comments:

	is Professional score: 3 pip: 151 5 point match Crawford pip: 67 score: 4 is bhm_w10
XGID=-cDD--CCA-a-b-----aca-b-b-:0:0:1:11:4:3:1:5:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	7/6(3) 3/2	eq: +0.405
	Player: Opponent: 70.97% (G:42.21% B:11.60%) 29.03% (G:0.71% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.400...+0.411) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: +0.252 (-0.153)
	Player: Opponent: 65.11% (G:36.31% B:10.94%) 34.89% (G:2.52% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.246...+0.257) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
3.	XG Roller+	7/5 6/5 3/2	eq: +0.273 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 65.53% (G:32.23% B:2.92%) 34.47% (G:1.89% B:0.04%)
4.	3-ply	8/7 6/5(3)	eq: +0.322 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 67.87% (G:29.64% B:2.22%) 32.13% (G:1.77% B:0.01%)
5.	3-ply	6/5(3) 3/2	eq: +0.285 (-0.120)
	Player: Opponent: 66.47% (G:30.23% B:2.32%) 33.53% (G:2.21% B:0.01%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47087291 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

I suppose this is due to later bearin issues but even so I do not understand why making the 5 point here is so much worse ------------------- Hi Barry, Main reason: I think this one will become clear if you set up the resulting positions, and then give Black his 5 point since he's a favorite to make it, to avoid complications. Then just look at all the rolls that include a 4 or a 5, and you'll see that most of them play better, and frequently much better, after the bot's play. After making your 5 point, you leave a lot of early shots, which are worse than late shots since you have no checkers off yet. It's true that the double gap can get you in trouble down the line, but then, so can the two stripped points (6 and 5) even if you bring the bar point in without incident. That's worse, too, because some of them are double-blot shots, which are easier for him to hit and harder for you to recover from if he bags both. If one checker gets hit later on after Play A, first, you will likely have a few men already off, and second, you will have the rest of your guys on the 3 and 2, leaving fewer ways to "root" from the bar. You may squirm away and win, or you may even win after being closed out. Secondary consideration: One reason the ding is so big here is that you may leave a shot on the bar point after he makes his 5 point, which if he hits can lead to a gammon and loss of the match. It's rare, but a gammon loss is even rarer if you give him those four shots now before he covers the 5 point rather than risk a direct shot after he does. Hope this helps, and I hope you and the family are all doing well. Mary

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• 32 to play
  Hank M. -- Monday, 25 September 2017, at 3:06 a.m.
  • 32 to play
    scotty -- Monday, 25 September 2017, at 6:26 a.m.
  • 32 to play
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 26 September 2017, at 7:35 p.m.
  • 32 to play ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 30 September 2017, at 1:42 p.m.
    • 32 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 September 2017, at 9:43 p.m.
      • 32 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
        Barry Murphy -- Sunday, 1 October 2017, at 3:25 p.m.
        • Las Vegas archive, and your 11 position
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 1 October 2017, at 7:38 p.m.
          • Las Vegas archive, and your 11 position
            Barry Murphy -- Monday, 2 October 2017, at 1:18 p.m.