[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

[BG Problem] Race GWC? - RO data, and VARIANT (1 pip difference)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 7 October 2017, at 5:29 a.m.

In Response To: [BG Problem] Race GWC? - RO data (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 57
13 point match
pip: 56
score: 10

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ACBDCB-a------a---aa-bde-:1:1:1:00:10:6:0:13:10

Original position


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 89,24% (G:0,01% B:0,00%) 89,21% (G:0,19% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 10,76% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 10,79% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,785 +1,299
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,891±0,002 (+0,889..+0,893)
Redouble/Take:+0,883 (-0,007)±0,000 (+0,883..+0,884)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,109)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6,0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 29,0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Karol's rollout of his original position appears above. Blue has No Redouble.

If you move White's 10pt checker (or even more so her 6pt checker) back 1 pip, the delicate R/T window is leapt over. That is, the proper cube action jumps from No Redouble to a Pass, as shown in the variant below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 58
13 point match
pip: 56
score: 10

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ACBDCB-a-----a----aa-bde-:1:1:1:00:10:6:0:13:10

Variant (Compared to the original, White is adjusted 10/11)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 90.82% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) 90.80% (G:1.01% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 9.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.817 +1.361
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.923 (-0.077)±0.002 (+0.922..+0.925)
Redouble/Take:+1.006 (+0.006)±0.001 (+1.005..+1.007)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49332968
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.