Let me elaborate a little.
If we simplify, there are three scenarios:
- we hit 45%, and when we do, we win the game 100% of the time (scenario 1)
- we miss 55%, and when we do we either win the game 25 % of the time (scenario 2) or lose it (the other 75%, scenario 3)
This is not 100% correct, but relatively close to the real situation, and leads to a similar breakdown of numbers of
WIN: 45%+55%*25% = 58.75%
LOSS: 55%*75% = 41.25%
I also assume that he will cube us everytime we miss (not 100% true), if we didn't cube first, and we will always take that cube.
In addition, let's say there are no gammons.
Then, comparing the scenarios when we cubed and when we didn't, we need not care about scenario 3, as it leads to our losing the match in any case.
In scenario 1, if we doubled, we get 2p. If we didn't, we get 1p. (Equity difference ~5.6%)
In scenario 2, if we doubled, we get 2p. If we didn't, we get 4p. (Equity difference ~14.4%)
Since 45%*5.6 > 13.75%*14.4, it is better if we cube now.
In the position below, we can cube even though we are underdogs.
                |
| ||||
| XGID=-----B---------------a-a--:0:0:1:00:4:9:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 43,83% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 43,83% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 56,17% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 56,17% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,123 | -0,636 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0,667 (-0,031) | |
| Double/Take: | -0,636 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,636) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2