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Theoretical question: correct double below doubling point

Posted By: Jack Edelson
Date: Wednesday, 11 October 2017, at 8:10 p.m.

In Response To: Theoretical question: correct double below doubling point (Tenland)

Perhaps the clearest example, because the reasoning is similar to the familiar logic about the score, is at 2a2a. In this position, as long as you roll a six or better, you're taking. So you double in case you win right away, even though you're an underdog at an even score, since the cube is likely to wind up on 2 regardless. You get to win the match right away on eight rolls, in exchange for merely losing the opportunity to drop on your five worst.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 6
2 point match
pip: 10
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----A-A--------------a-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:2:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 47.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 47.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 52.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.046 -0.129
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.454 (-0.325)
Double/Take:-0.129
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.129)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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