42 to play - rollout and VARIANT

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42 to play - rollout and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 22 October 2017, at 7:20 a.m.

In Response To: 42 to play - rollout (Barry Murphy)

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/11 eq: +0.096
Player:
Opponent: 64.23% (G:27.61% B:7.83%)
35.77% (G:8.00% B:0.78%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (+0.083...+0.109) - [99.8%]
Duration: 5 minutes 58 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/6 eq: +0.069 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 63.35% (G:27.13% B:8.68%)
36.65% (G:7.76% B:1.01%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.057...+0.082) - [0.2%]
Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq: +0.059 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent: 63.30% (G:26.19% B:6.87%)
36.70% (G:7.93% B:0.70%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.047...+0.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 eq: +0.038 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent: 62.00% (G:29.71% B:10.29%)
38.00% (G:7.91% B:1.09%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (+0.023...+0.052) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
5. XG Roller++ 8/2* eq: +0.039 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent: 62.00% (G:24.16% B:2.25%)
38.00% (G:7.71% B:0.31%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73501684
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Barry's rollout of his position is copied above. (Thanks to Barry, and to all bgonliners, who follow up their initial posts with rollouts.) Rather than subject you to my left/right and checker color reversals, I omitted his diagram. Just use my diagram below when comparing the sets of data above and below it.
The above results looked odd to me, and because of the wildly varying results I have often seen in 1k rollouts of early positions, I decided to roll it out myself. Compare the margin of the above 1k rollout (.027) to the margin of my 10k(/5k) rollout below (.004). The latter happens to agree exactly with the XGR++ margin evaluation (.004).

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 179

5 point match

pip: 143
score: 2

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-baBB-B-C---dD---d-dAA----:1:-1:1:42:2:0:0:5:10
Longer rollout of the same position

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/11 eq: +0.081
Player:
Opponent: 63.85% (G:27.08% B:7.58%)
36.15% (G:8.05% B:0.85%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.077...+0.086) - [90.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/6 eq: +0.077 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent: 63.62% (G:27.53% B:8.11%)
36.38% (G:8.02% B:0.79%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+0.073...+0.082) - [9.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3. Rollout² 20/14 eq: +0.054 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 63.21% (G:26.07% B:7.11%)
36.79% (G:8.04% B:0.62%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (+0.048...+0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 48 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/9 8/6 eq: +0.034 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 62.07% (G:29.36% B:9.88%)
37.93% (G:8.08% B:0.79%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.027...+0.041) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
5. Rollout² 8/2* eq: -0.004 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent: 61.21% (G:26.88% B:7.76%)
38.79% (G:8.25% B:0.78%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.010...+0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 33 seconds

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82605212
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82605212
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Okay, so where's my "variant"? Well, I wondered about the reverse score, and then I wondered what the best play would be if one of White's 8pt spares were pulled back to the midpoint. You might find the result below amusing...

White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 184

5 point match

pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-baB-BB-C---eD---c-dAA----:1:-1:1:42:0:2:0:5:10
Three-way dead heat, Five-way tie

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/11 eq: +0.594
Player:
Opponent: 67.23% (G:23.54% B:1.83%)
32.77% (G:6.79% B:0.82%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.589...+0.599) - [38.3%]
Duration: 56 minutes 57 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 eq: +0.594 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent: 66.61% (G:24.63% B:1.74%)
33.39% (G:6.83% B:0.93%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.589...+0.599) - [32.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 41 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/6 eq: +0.594 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent: 67.23% (G:23.38% B:1.88%)
32.77% (G:6.46% B:0.68%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.589...+0.598) - [29.7%]
Duration: 56 minutes 17 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq: +0.586 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 67.48% (G:22.68% B:1.67%)
32.52% (G:6.38% B:0.71%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.582...+0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 31 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq: +0.586 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 65.79% (G:25.01% B:1.98%)
34.21% (G:7.26% B:1.04%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.581...+0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 49 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82605212
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Nack

Messages In This Thread
42 to play
Barry Murphy -- Monday, 16 October 2017, at 5:40 p.m.

42 to play
Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 16 October 2017, at 7:31 p.m.

42 to play
mamabear -- Monday, 16 October 2017, at 11:57 p.m.

42 to play
scotty -- Tuesday, 17 October 2017, at 1:52 a.m.

42 to play
Jeom -- Thursday, 19 October 2017, at 9:22 a.m.

42 to play
ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 October 2017, at 8:30 p.m.

42 to play - rollout
Barry Murphy -- Saturday, 21 October 2017, at 1:33 p.m.

42 to play - rollout and VARIANT
Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 22 October 2017, at 7:20 a.m.

42 to play XGR++ (at GG)
ah_clem -- Monday, 23 October 2017, at 2:21 p.m.

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