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Falafel Bets #1 - Rollout -- VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 27 October 2017, at 11:20 a.m.

In Response To: Falafel Bets #1 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 153
7 point match
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a---aE-D---eDA--c-c----bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout1Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.142
Player:
Opponent:		47.99% (G:10.08% B:0.49%)
52.01% (G:16.33% B:0.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.148...-0.135) - [55.4%]
Duration: 24 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 14/10eq: -0.142 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		47.66% (G:10.70% B:0.44%)
52.34% (G:15.59% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.149...-0.135) - [44.6%]
Duration: 25 minutes 53 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11509354
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-D---eDA--c-c----bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout1Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.126
Player:
Opponent:		47.98% (G:10.33% B:0.44%)
52.02% (G:16.19% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.132...-0.119) - [99.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 14/10eq: -0.137 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		47.65% (G:10.35% B:0.39%)
52.35% (G:15.43% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.144...-0.131) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94307656
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Above is Stick's 5k rollout of his original position, followed by my 5k rollout (which I had already done). There is a difference in margin of (.012 – .001) = .011. Combining our results (total 10k) yields a margin between .005 and .006.

Below is a contrasting variant.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-D---dDA--c-d----bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

Variant (White is adjusted by 13/6)


1.Rollout1Bar/23 14/10eq: -0.291
Player:
Opponent:		44.22% (G:9.62% B:0.40%)
55.78% (G:19.00% B:0.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.299...-0.284) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.309 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		43.51% (G:8.37% B:0.35%)
56.49% (G:18.59% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.315...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94307656
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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