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Falafel Bets #4 - Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 30 October 2017, at 5:13 a.m.

In Response To: Falafel Bets #4 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 139 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 117 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BBAB-B-----cBa--cadCc--A-:1:1:-1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	7/2 4/2	eq: +0.261
	Player: Opponent: 65.87% (G:14.06% B:0.53%) 34.13% (G:8.04% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.256...+0.266) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/11 7/2	eq: +0.243 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 65.88% (G:12.92% B:0.49%) 34.12% (G:8.42% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.238...+0.249) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67624279 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's 2k rollout of his original position.

In Variant 1 below, one of Blue's spares is back on his 13pt; that change easily swings the best play:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--CcCAC--AbD-----b-babb-:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 6/13)

1.	Rollout1	13/11 7/2	eq: +0.217
	Player: Opponent: 65.13% (G:10.79% B:0.46%) 34.87% (G:8.26% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.213...+0.221) - [100.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/2 4/2	eq: +0.174 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 63.63% (G:11.63% B:0.50%) 36.37% (G:9.65% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.170...+0.178) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 05 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/11 13/8	eq: +0.150 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 63.24% (G:11.35% B:0.51%) 36.76% (G:10.29% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.146...+0.154) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 16 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/11 6/1*	eq: +0.120 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 62.70% (G:12.15% B:0.45%) 37.30% (G:13.35% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.115...+0.125) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 02 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In Variant 2 below, the three plays (that respondants voted for in the original position) are all very close.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 125 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--CcEA---AbE-----b-abbb-:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (Blue heavier 13pt+6pt but no 8pt, White is adjusted 4/3)

1.	Rollout1	13/11 7/2	eq: -0.013
	Player: Opponent: 57.40% (G:11.89% B:0.52%) 42.60% (G:13.61% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.016...-0.009) - [96.2%] Duration: 42 minutes 47 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/11 6/1*	eq: -0.017 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 58.22% (G:12.32% B:0.46%) 41.78% (G:15.76% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.021...-0.013) - [3.8%] Duration: 47 minutes 22 seconds
3.	Rollout2	7/2 4/2	eq: -0.031 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 56.54% (G:13.10% B:0.54%) 43.46% (G:14.73% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.035...-0.027) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 46 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Falafel Bets #4
  Stick -- Thursday, 26 October 2017, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #4
    Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 26 October 2017, at 9:53 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #4
    scotty -- Friday, 27 October 2017, at 1:25 a.m.
  • Falafel Bets #4
    neilkaz -- Friday, 27 October 2017, at 5:20 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #4
    Sean Garber -- Saturday, 28 October 2017, at 9:29 a.m.
    • Falafel Bets #4
      TarHeelFan -- Sunday, 29 October 2017, at 3:37 a.m.
  • Falafel Bets #4 - Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 4:13 a.m.
    • Falafel Bets #4 - Rollout and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 5:13 a.m.