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Bearoff Problem

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 30 October 2017, at 3:57 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff Problem (Stick)

Seems to be three ideas:

1) Rip off four from the ace

2) POH on the three point

3) Stack 8 on the four point

If we go with 2) then we have the choice of 5/4(2) or 1/off(2).

Ripping off four gives us six off, plus enough spares on the four and five that we are unlikely to leave a blot until we have ten or so off. 10 off is 70% to win even if we get closed out on the bar. This may be the DMP move.

5/4(4) kills deuces, which is no big deal, and it makes 3s play awkwardly, but we're pretty much guaranteed to get nine off before blotting.

This far ahead in the race means that we win a gammon almost all the time we are able to bear off without being hit, so there's no "gammon" reason to poh, only the utility of filling in the gap. 4/3*(2) 1/off(2) leaves no immediate blots that I can see and may force white's blot out of contact if she rolls a six.

I'll hit and cover on the three; it's too juicy to pass up for my greedy tastes. Not sure if it's right.

4/3(*2) 1/off(2)

Messages In This Thread

• Bearoff Problem
  Stick -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 3:04 p.m.
  • Bearoff Problem
    bluedice -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 3:34 p.m.
    • Bearoff Problem
      neilkaz -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 6:03 p.m.
  • Bearoff Problem
    ah_clem -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 3:57 p.m.
    • Bearoff Problem
      scotty -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 4:28 p.m.
    • Bearoff Problem
      neilkaz -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 6:16 p.m.
  • Bearoff Problem
    scotty -- Monday, 30 October 2017, at 4:25 p.m.
  • Bearoff Problem
    Sean Garber -- Tuesday, 31 October 2017, at 2:05 a.m.
  • Bearoff Problem - Analysis
    Stick -- Tuesday, 31 October 2017, at 2:00 p.m.
    • Bearoff Problem - Rollout and VARIANT
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 31 October 2017, at 3:53 p.m.