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Bearoff Problem - Rollout and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 31 October 2017, at 3:53 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff Problem - Analysis (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EbaDD-a-a------aa-bbb-b--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout14/3*(4) eq: +1.305
Player:
Opponent:
82.58% (G:71.31% B:1.89%)
17.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.299...+1.311) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds
2.Rollout14/3*(2) 1/Off(2)eq: +1.263 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
80.95% (G:68.71% B:4.11%)
19.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.257...+1.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
3.Rollout15/3*(2) eq: +1.221 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
79.96% (G:69.66% B:1.23%)
20.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.215...+1.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
4.XG Roller++1/Off(4)eq: +0.917 (-0.388)
Player:
Opponent:
70.39% (G:52.45% B:9.33%)
29.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9673246
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Stick's rollout of his original position appears above.

There is a contrasting variant below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 45
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DbaDE-a-a------aa-bbb-b--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

Compared to the original position, Blue is adjusted 1/5


1.Rollout15/3* 4/3(2)eq: +1.277
Player:
Opponent:
82.01% (G:69.52% B:2.14%)
17.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.274...+1.280) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout14/3*(4) eq: +1.232 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
80.84% (G:67.24% B:2.85%)
19.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.229...+1.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 59 seconds
3.Rollout15/3* 4/3 1/Offeq: +1.221 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
80.20% (G:66.81% B:3.64%)
19.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.217...+1.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds
4.Rollout24/3*(2) 1/Off(2)eq: +1.162 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
78.42% (G:63.75% B:5.45%)
21.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.154...+1.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
5.Rollout25/3*(2) eq: +1.133 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:
77.94% (G:65.22% B:2.19%)
22.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.126...+1.140) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds
6.Rollout21/Off(4)eq: +0.765 (-0.512)
Player:
Opponent:
66.87% (G:47.24% B:10.63%)
33.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.753...+0.777) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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