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OTB & RO -- plus VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 2 November 2017, at 3:13 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 13
11 point match
pip: 8
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DB---------------a----c--:1:1:1:00:7:4:0:11:10

Redouble/Take


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 82.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 17.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.644 +1.423
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.810 (-0.037)±0.000 (+0.810..+0.810)
Redouble/Take:+0.847±0.000 (+0.847..+0.847)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.153)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.4 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

John's rollout of his original position appears above. Redouble/Take.

Below are two variants. The first is No Redouble (coincidentally by the same .037 margin). The second is Redouble/Pass.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 12
11 point match
pip: 8
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DB---------------a----ba-:1:1:1:00:7:4:0:11:10

No Redouble


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 19.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.620 +1.371
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.793±0.000 (+0.793..+0.793)
Redouble/Take:+0.756 (-0.037)±0.000 (+0.756..+0.756)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.207)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.4 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 15
11 point match
pip: 8
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DB---------------a--a-b--:1:1:1:00:7:4:0:11:10

Redouble/Pass


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 85.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 85.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 14.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 14.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.705 +1.555
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.862 (-0.138)±0.000 (+0.862..+0.862)
Redouble/Take:+1.079 (+0.079)±0.000 (+1.079..+1.079)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.5 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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