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Skill-adjusted numbers

Posted By: Philippe Michel
Date: Thursday, 2 November 2017, at 8:07 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)

[...] an even bigger R for me vs. XGR+

This is something of an understatement. John is one of the few players against who XGR+, if it was taking in account the skill difference, could have a take.

The Jacobs MET for equal players has -7:-2 MWC at 14.9% (vs. 15.6 for modern tables) and the decision at hand a close no-double (ND: 0.81, DT: 0.79) compared to (ND: 0.81, DT 0.85).

Assuming that the Jacobs tables for unequal players underestimate the DT by 0.06 as well is a bit iffy, but at least that gives an idea of the orientation of the bias and its magnitude.

With the doubler a 50 Elo/1.5 PR underdog, using the Jacobs MET gives (ND: 0.81, DT 0.89). With 100 Elo/ 3.0 PR it is (ND: 0.81, DT 0.98).

If the doubler is the favorite (the case mentionned by CMC), the above bias works in the other way, but doubling is still in multiple-whopper territory: (ND: 0.81, DT: 0.64) with a 50 Elo difference, (ND: 0.80, DT: 0.48) with 100 Elo.

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