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Match recube. Rollout & MORE VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 3 November 2017, at 10:26 p.m.

In Response To: Match recube. Rollout & more. (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 105
13 point match
pip: 81
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-CABC-B-a-------dbbbbBb-:1:-1:-1:00:3:8:0:13:10

Original position: Redouble / Pass


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 85,69% (G:6,32% B:0,10%) 86,16% (G:6,40% B:0,09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 14,31% (G:0,37% B:0,01%) 13,84% (G:0,49% B:0,01%)
Cubeless Equities +0,768 +1,367
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,959 (-0,041)±0,004 (+0,955..+0,963)
Redouble/Take:+1,052 (+0,052)±0,009 (+1,043..+1,061)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Karol's rollout of his original position is shown above. Redouble / Pass.

You'll have fun making sense of the variants (see rollouts below).

If we move Blue's outfield blot back 1 pip, the position becomes Redouble / Take.

If we move Blue's outfield blot back 3 pips, the position becomes No Redouble!






White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 105
13 point match
pip: 82
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BbBBBBD--------Ab-cbac-b-:1:1:1:00:8:3:0:13:10

Variant 1: Redouble / Take


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 84.67% (G:6.46% B:0.14%) 85.19% (G:5.88% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 15.33% (G:0.52% B:0.02%) 14.81% (G:0.57% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.747 +1.322
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.948 (-0.040)±0.002 (+0.945..+0.950)
Redouble/Take:+0.987±0.005 (+0.983..+0.992)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.013)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6286528
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 105
13 point match
pip: 84
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BbBBBBD---------bAcbac-b-:1:1:1:00:8:3:0:13:10

Variant 2: No Redouble


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83.47% (G:6.33% B:0.15%) 83.88% (G:6.00% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16.53% (G:0.54% B:0.01%) 16.12% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.722 +1.268
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.932±0.002 (+0.930..+0.935)
Redouble/Take:+0.904 (-0.028)±0.005 (+0.899..+0.909)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.068)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.7%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6286528
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 3 below reveals a less subtle-looking change. The correct cube action is No Redouble (compared to Redouble / Pass in the original position).

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 103
13 point match
pip: 79
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBbBBBD-------A-b-cbac-b-:1:1:1:00:8:3:0:13:10

Variant 3 (White's anchor is advanced from 23pt to 22pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.27% (G:3.92% B:0.06%) 82.72% (G:3.74% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.73% (G:0.56% B:0.01%) 17.28% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.675 +1.214
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.891±0.002 (+0.888..+0.893)
Redouble/Take:+0.850 (-0.041)±0.004 (+0.846..+0.855)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.109)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.4%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6286528
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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